False syllogisms, teddy bears, causality and MMR
Most parents are not trained in analysing clinical evidence, yet they can spend hours on the internet, and reach dangerous conclusions about whether to immunise their children.
"Many parents, wanting to do the best for their children, have been convinced by apparently logical arguments for a link between the MMR vaccine and autism.
Aristotle, the father of logic, introduced the concept of syllogisms: "An argument in which, when certain prepositions have been laid down, something distinct from these is seen to follow necessarily from their existence". Not all syllogisms are valid: an invalid, or false, syllogism is an apparently logical but in fact illogical argument, for example "All cats have four legs. This animal (a horse) has four legs. Therefore the animal is a cat".
How not to do science
4 comments:
I have to say, at first I was excited about this blog but then your extreme biases against all forms of alternative medicine became apparent and I am very troubled by it. I understand that this is probably the only viewpoint you know, having been trained in it, but putting one’s full trust and belief in Western allopathy is dangerous IMO. I find it strange that you quote liberally from “Quackwatch” but I’m sure that Quackwatch would consider the Prophet Mohammad’s (Salla l-laahu `alayhi wa sallam) claims of health benefits to honey and black seed to be in the same category as all other “quackeries” that are not endorsed by the world of allopathy.
Those of us who have made allegedly “dangerous” decisions about limiting vaccination do not do so because we scanned the Internet and attempted amaterur “analysis of clinical research”, rather we do so because of the increasing numbers of doctors and researchers who have been trained in clinical research analysis who have reached conclusions favoring caution regarding certain vaccines. In fact, my own childrens' pediatrician, generally quite mainstream, has actually agreed with me on part of my reasons for selective and delayed vaccination and has agreed with me on the uselessness of some of the vaccines we have chosen not to do.
We laypeople are also not incapable of grasping the IMMENSE influence of the pharmaceutical industry in ALL aspects of medicine and government and the fact that the vast majority of all studies and research related to the vaccines which net them billions of dollars a year are all industry-sponsored, run by industry-sponsored doctors and/or industry-sponsored facilities. We are not incapable of understanding the past history of the pharmaceutical companies’ behavior or of the past history of their collusion with the governments whose boards approve, recommend, or require such vaccines, the very members of those boards who generally receive industry “gifts” and do not see them as conflicts of interest. (!)
Just a year or two ago the Bush Administration here in the US ordered that all the medical records of patients who had suspected a link between autism and the MMR vaccine SEALED and no longer open to further research or investigation. Is this not suspicious behavior?
Furthermore, in mainstream allopathy now there is an increasing look at the fact that there may be people who have some kind of as yet unidentified genetic predisposition to certain kinds of vaccine reactions. I have a friend like this who has 6 kids. The fully vaccinated one got full-blown autism, the partially vaccinated ones have Asperger’s and Sensory Integration Dysfunction, and the non-vaccinated ones are fine. She belongs to a number of organizations in which there are many other stories like hers, all with similar family medical histories which I since found out are being investigated in a number of mainstream studies.
However, having read in detail about the way the world of medical research works and what gets funded and what doesn't, what gets published and what doesn't, what gets media attention and what doesn't, it is clear that if anything comes out that could damage the profits or the reputation of the pharmaceutical companies (which bankroll the journals, doctors, researchers, and institutions that make those decisions), I don't have too much faith that we will ever know the results of such studies.
There is more to the story than what the “mainstream” medical people want us to believe and this is evident through their actions, no analysis of clinical research required. I would appreciate more respect shown to those of us who choose not to blindly jump on the bandwagon and put our trust in people, institutions, and corporations who have quite frankly do not deserve it. We are not just weak emotional idiots who follow anybody with a good scare tactic and a picture of a crying child.
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